{"id":56860,"date":"2026-09-02T15:16:43","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T13:16:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/npolar.no\/?post_type=nyhet&p=56860"},"modified":"2026-09-02T15:16:43","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T13:16:43","slug":"new-scientific-review-identifies-antarctic-coastal-blind-spots-limiting-sea-level-projections","status":"publish","type":"nyhet","link":"https:\/\/npolar.no\/en\/newsarticle\/new-scientific-review-identifies-antarctic-coastal-blind-spots-limiting-sea-level-projections\/","title":{"rendered":"New Scientific Review Identifies Antarctic Coastal Blind Spots Limiting Sea Level Projections"},"content":{"rendered":"

The paper, recently published in American Geophysical Union (AGU)\u2019s Reviews of Geophysics<\/a>, synthesizes current understanding of how ice, ocean, atmosphere, and the solid Earth interact in Antarctica\u2019s coastal zone, and highlights key knowledge gaps and the need for improved observations at a pan-Antarctic scale.<\/p>\n

The paper brings together existing observations, models, and theory to highlight how incomplete data continue to limit estimates of Antarctic ice loss and future sea-level rise.<\/p>\n

\u201cAntarctica\u2019s coastal zone is where ocean, ice, atmosphere, and the underlying bed interact\u2014making it central to predicting future sea level rise. Yet limited observations in this region leave critical gaps in understanding, meaning Antarctica remains a major source of uncertainty\u201d, says first author and the chair of the RINGS Action Group, Dr. Kenichi Matsuoka at Norwegian Polar Institute.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"En

The working place inside the plane. Photo: Kenichi Matsuoka \/ Norwegian Polar Institute<\/p><\/div>\n

A critical control point for sea level rise<\/h2>\n

The Antarctic coastal zone is not simply the edge of the continent. It is a tightly coupled system where grounded ice meets the ocean, and where small changes can have outsized consequences. Processes occurring near the grounding zone\u2014the point where ice lifts off the bed and begins to float\u2014can regulate ice discharge or, under certain conditions, trigger feedbacks that accelerate ice loss.<\/p>\n

\"Portrett

Kenichi Matsuoka is a senior researcher and first author of the publication. Photo: Siri Uldal \/ Norwegian Polar Institute<\/p><\/div>\n

Observations over recent decades show that Antarctic mass loss has increased. The most rapid changes are driven by interactions between the ice and surrounding ocean, and by ice flow at the margins of the ice sheet, rather than surface melting alone. Yet key coastal conditions remain poorly mapped.<\/p>\n

The biggest gaps\u2014and why they matter<\/h2>\n

The review identifies persistent gaps in direct observations of coastal bed topography and sub\u2013ice shelf cavities. Because ice sheet models are highly sensitive to conditions at the coast, even advanced models can produce misleading results when this data is missing or poorly constrained.<\/p>\n

While satellite observations provide powerful measurements of ice motion and surface change, they cannot observe the bedrock under ice from space.<\/p>\n

“Satellite data alone cannot reliably estimate ice loss into the ocean, and computer models alone cannot predict future change. Both depend on accurate knowledge of bed topography. Observations like those proposed in this paper provide a key missing piece”, Matsuoka says.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Et

A modernized plane from the 1940s is what the researchers use for flying. Photo: Kenichi Matsuoka \/ Norwegian Polar Institute<\/p><\/div>\n

A roadmap for coordinated action<\/h2>\n

Because no single nation can achieve comprehensive coverage alone, the authors emphasize that international coordination is essential.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cUncoordinated surveys risk leaving gaps or duplicating effort. This paper provides an evidence-based framework to support coordinating RINGS activities under SCAR and COMNAP, helping to build more comprehensive datasets for improved sea-level projections\u201d, Matsuoka says.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u201cSuch internationally coordinated efforts can serve as a steppingstone towards the next International Polar Year 2032\u201333\u201d, Matsuoka concludes.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Contributing countries and institutions:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Australia:<\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  • Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future, Monash University, Clayton, Kulin Nations, VIC<\/li>\n
  • School of Earth and Oceans, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA<\/li>\n
  • Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA<\/li>\n
  • Mineral Resources, CSIRO, Kensington, WA<\/li>\n
  • Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS<\/li>\n
  • Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS<\/li>\n
  • Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS<\/li>\n
  • Skytraders PTY LTD, Melbourne, VIC<\/li>\n
  • Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, TAS<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n
Japan: <\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  • Hokkaido University, Sapporo<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

     <\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Belgium:<\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  • Earth and Life Institute, Universite catholique de Louvain, Ottignies\u2010Louvain\u2010la\u2010Neuve<\/li>\n
  • Water and Climate Department, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels<\/li>\n
  • Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Universit\u00e9 libre de Bruxelles, Brussels<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n
Norway: <\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  • Norwegian Polar Institute, Troms\u00f8<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Brazil: <\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  • Department of Water Resources and Environment, Aeronautics Institute of Technology, S\u00e3o Jos\u00e9 dos Campos<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n
South Korea:<\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  • Chonnam National University, Gwangju<\/li>\n
  • Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
China:<\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  • Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai<\/li>\n
  • Tongji University, Shanghai<\/li>\n
  • MNR Key Laboratory of Airborne Geophysics and Remote Sensing Geology, China Aero Geophysical Survey and Remote Sensing Center for Natural Resources, China Geological Survey, Beijing<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n
Spain:<\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  • Universidad Polit\u00e9cnica de Madrid, Madrid<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Denmark:<\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  • Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby<\/li>\n
  • Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n
Sweden:<\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  • Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm<\/li>\n
  • Mid Sweden University, \u00d6stersund<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
France:<\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  • University of Grenoble Alpes, Saint\u2010Martin\u2010d’H\u00e8res<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n
Switzerland:<\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  • Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern<\/li>\n
  • Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Germany:<\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  • Department of Geosciences, University of T\u00fcbingen, T\u00fcbingen<\/li>\n
  • Kiel University, Kiel<\/li>\n
  • Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven<\/li>\n
  • Faculty of Geosciences, University of Bremen, Bremen<\/li>\n
  • GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel<\/li>\n
  • Bundesanstalt f\u00fcr Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover<\/li>\n
  • TUD Dresden University of Technology, Dresden<\/li>\n
  • Friedrich\u2010Alexander University, Erlangen<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n
United Kingdom: <\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  • British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge<\/li>\n
  • Durham University, Durham<\/li>\n
  • Swansea University, Swansea<\/li>\n
  • Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Geography and Natural Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne<\/li>\n
  • Newcastle University, Newcastle\u2010upon\u2010Tyne<\/li>\n
  • University of Bristol, Bristol<\/li>\n
  • University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
India:<\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  • National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research, Vasco da Gama, Goa<\/li>\n
  • Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n
USA:<\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  • Lamont\u2010Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY<\/li>\n
  • Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA<\/li>\n
  • Amherst College, Amherst, MA<\/li>\n
  • University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS<\/li>\n
  • NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD<\/li>\n
  • University of Florida, Gainesville, FL<\/li>\n
  • Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH<\/li>\n
  • University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN<\/li>\n
  • Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH<\/li>\n
  • Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO<\/li>\n
  • Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA<\/li>\n
  • Central Washington University, Ellensburg, WA<\/li>\n
  • Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA<\/li>\n
  • Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Remote Sensing Center, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL<\/li>\n
  • Institute of Geophysics, University of Texas, Austin, TX<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Italy:<\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  • Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics, Sgonico<\/li>\n
  • Polytechnic University of Marche, Ancona<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/td>\n
 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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